Market Intelligence
A framework for turning public data and market information into clear, comparable evidence.
Start with the question
Define the material, product form, geography and time period before collecting data. Mine output, refined output, apparent consumption and cross-border trade measure different things.
| Common mix-up | Better comparison |
|---|---|
| Reserves versus production | Reserves are a stock; annual mine production is a flow. |
| Mine supply versus refined supply | Check concentration at each stage, not just the mine location. |
| Spot price versus forecast | Separate observed prices from scenario assumptions. |
| Metal versus compound | Keep the chemical basis and unit consistent. |
Read the source: USGS · Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 ↗ · IEA · Critical Minerals Data Explorer ↗
Normalise a price comparison
Record product specification, measurement basis, currency, unit, delivery location, Incoterm, quantity, quotation date and payment terms. A delivered price includes a different cost boundary from a mine-gate price.
Price assessments are published methodologies, while individual offers are counterparties’ commercial proposals. Check what each series actually measures, its timing and any licensing restrictions before redistributing it.
Use the right source
| Source | Use it for | Check |
|---|---|---|
| USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries | Mineral production, uses and supply context. | Country basis, units, estimate flags and reporting year. |
| IEA Critical Minerals Data Explorer | Energy-transition scenarios and supply/demand context. | Scenario assumptions, mineral coverage and definitions. |
| Government customs/tariff publications | Classification, declarations and applicable trade requirements. | Jurisdiction, date and exact product. |
| Producer reports and exchange notices | Company operations, contract specifications and formal disclosures. | Reporting basis, reconciliation and publication date. |
Read the source: USGS · Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 ↗ · IEA · Critical Minerals Data Explorer ↗ · HMRC · Commodity classification ↗
Separate evidence from judgement
A forecast is conditional on assumptions. A proposed project is not operating capacity. A policy target is not achieved output. Label estimates, scenarios and opinions clearly so readers can distinguish them from reported observations.
Use a short source log and review dates for facts likely to change. The hub links to primary sources; it does not display unverified live commodity prices or freight rates.
Continue learning
Read the source: USGS · Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 ↗ · IEA · Critical Minerals Data Explorer ↗ · UK Government · Critical Minerals technical annex ↗
Educational overview. Apply the current rules, contract and cargo-specific requirements to each shipment or project; this is not a substitute for specialist advice.